NEARC Fall 2016 has ended
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Tuesday, October 18 • 11:00am - 11:30am
Technical Session. A Risk Based Approach for Optimizing Water System Pipeline Renewel

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AUTHORS: Mark Zito, James Carolan - CDM Smith

ABSTRACT: Prioritizing replacement of water mains can be a challenge, especially in New England with water mains dating back to the late 1800’s. Past methods for prioritization typically involved a simplistic formula of counting past breaks and the age of the water main, however this method does not take into account many of factors that influence a water mains lifespan. The new method of prioritization takes into account the consequence and likelihood failure. These are then combined to establish a risk score for each individual asset that is used to prioritize replacement.The likelihood of failure is established using the Linear Extended Yule Process (LEYP) statistical model to predict the number of failures within a specified time interval. The consequence of failure assesses the impact a failure may have on the ability to deliver water, disruption to the public, and damage to other assets. The Risk score is computed using a bi-direction matrix of the consequence and likelihood of failure values. The process utilizes a series of GIS-based tools to effectively manage and present the data in an understandable format. The tools are adaptable, repeatable and efficient for developing a comprehensive assessment of an entire water main system.

Tuesday October 18, 2016 11:00am - 11:30am EDT
Nauset II